Colin Jones (S1 E9): Knockout KISS

At the Blackjack Ball one particular 12 months, Tommy Hyland came up to me
stating he experienced a dilemma. The preface “I have a query for you” is generally a
very little unnerving, in particular coming from an individual you really do not speak to quite often. So
then he requested me … [wait for it …]

“Why do you recommend KO?”

I was surprised, not by the query alone, but because it
indicated Tommy should have study a little something I wrote. I believe most expert
gamblers who know me never really read any of my stuff. But everyone’s been
looking at Colin Jones’s The 21st-Century Card Counter, which
espouses the same principle—simplicity will get the money—but attracts a a little various
conclusion.

Mies and I are Fewer-Is-Extra apologists, and CJ, who understands a lot more counters than I do, agrees: “All the productive card counters I know (I’m speaking six- or 7-determine earners) have made their revenue not by the complexity of their programs, but by aggressively attacking the casinos and finding in thousands of several hours of engage in.” I would only make a slight modification. The most successful counters I have found aggressively attack sure casinos, but thoroughly avoid others.

Some counters will go ahead and participate in everywhere, but I really don’t
consider which is ideal. There are casinos out there that will allow for a stunning
selection of hours. They just don’t know what a counter seems like, or they are
unwilling to take countermeasures in opposition to the player. Effective counters
typically play these unicorn casinos normally and difficult, sometimes tenting out for months.
The late Major Purple camped out on the very same table for yrs! Assume about that—spreading
from to 2x$300, with no protect, for 20-40 hours for each 7 days, for several years. And
getting points and comps on a player’s card on best of it all.  (That may feel like heaven to some, but I’m
not sure if I ever observed the man smile—not once.)

CJ presses the case for selecting a straightforward depend method: “You
can find out a much much more complicated count, but when you consider 1) the
complexity, 2) the time desired to truly master it, 3) the space for error
(which arrives at a expense), 4) the amount of money of mental vitality it can take to use it, and
5) the benefit of rounds for every hour, I question no matter if you will really make much more
cash. … And my strongest argument for HiLo is that just about every important card-counting
crew I know of has employed it.” To me, that past argument is in fact the weakest.

Ironically, one of the groups CJ is chatting about would be
Hyland’s workforce, but Tommy essentially said the exact same point to me at the Ball. When Tommy
started out out, the Knockout Rely (KO) did not exist, and other groups had been applying
HiLo. So everybody utilizes HiLo simply because every person else takes advantage of it? It’s a fiat count
procedure!

Alright, HiLo is actually a superior technique, but if, on paper, HiLo
is equivalent to KO, then I’m extremely assured that KO will damage HiLo in the
wild. Why do I say that? Mainly because extensive observation of precise APs in the
wild displays that their functionality is constantly below the program specs
fundamental the computer-optimal EV.

Individuals have a skepticism concerning working-depend methods,
but KO has a great pivot, and its indices are a lot more exact than HiLo’s, due to KO’s
efficiently finer stepsize when we restrict indices to be integers. A one
place in the functioning-counted KO represents roughly a .2% improve in EV, when a
position in the accurate-counted HiLo signifies about .5%. If we have been to discover fractional
HiLo indices, that KO edge would go absent, but no just one would want to discover
that doubling 9 vs. 7 must materialize at HiLo +3.2 (or +2.8, or no matter what).

But glance, no one estimates decks remaining nicely, especially
when the discard rack and shoe are opaque. And no one particular does the division rapidly
enough, so hemming and hawing and stalling is introduced to the video game. Then the
execution isn’t as sleek, and time is squandered.

A further argument that I often listen to, but luckily not
in CJ’s book, is that HiLo is extra suitable with shuffle tracking. Oh be sure to.
Just end.

If we’re going to discuss about other outside of-counting strategies, then the scenario for a true-counted method like HiLo gets weaker, and KO seems good. When I’m enjoying a challenging blackjack recreation, if I rely at all, the counting element of factors requires to be actually uncomplicated, and not sluggish down decisions that could now be challenging. KO is the restrict to what I’m willing to do when multi-tasking.

Each individual participant swears that his execution is flawless, and it’s
the other guy who really should contemplate a less complicated method like KO, but the knowledge
says usually. In each occasion the place we do a pop quiz or solution audit
to test a player’s skill, the effects are disappointing. (This is the scene in
the movie clip exactly where we all stand in a crowd, and a person-by-one phase ahead to
announce “I am the underperforming AP.”)

In the latest decades, I have become a bit disappointed by the AP local community, primarily since the ability degree all round is so weak, and the posers are tolerated. And I feel there’s some idiocracy likely on. I consider we’re finding even worse, even with all the new resources accessible to understand. I believe the millennials are not as major about the video game, and perhaps CJ unfairly requires some of the warmth for that. But the most effective way to boost collectively is to be real looking about our skills in the discipline, and utilitize the uncomplicated but powerful methods we now have offered. By promoting HiLo, Colin Jones’s BJA empire is a step in the ideal direction (from UstonAPC, RevereAPC, WongHalves, and some others). For a veteran or a new participant, I’d advise KO, but CJ’s carrying out superior work preaching HiLo. It’s aiight.

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